(CZ) Predikční validita zkoušek zakončujících středoškolské vzdělávání a přijímacích testů na vysoké školy
(EN) The Predictive Value of Final Middle-School Examinations and Entrance Tests at Universities

Přehledová studie mapuje vybrané výzkumy predikční validity zkoušek zakončujících středoškolské vzdělávání a přijímacích testů na vysoké školy. Predikční validita je důležitou vlastností testu a vyjadřuje jeho schopnost předpovídat budoucí úspěch. Mezi nejužívanější prediktory patří právě výsledky v přijímacích testech a hodnocení ze středních škol, přičemž porovnávání jejich vlivu je jedním z často diskutovaných témat. Ač existuje několik kritérií akademického úspěchu, nejčastěji je využíván studijní průměr během prvního ročníku studia, postup do druhého ročníku nebo úspěšné dokončení studia. Analyzované studie jsou rozděleny do kapitol podle jejich hlavního cíle, od studií zaměřujících se na středoškolské zkoušky ke studiím zjišťujícím predikční validitu přijímacích zkoušek. Dalším kritériem řazení je země původu dat. Samostatná část je věnována výzkumům v České republice. Ze studií jednoznačně vyplývá, že využití přijímacích testů i prospěchu ze střední školy je v rámci přijímacích řízení na vysoké školy opodstatněné. Oba tyto parametry dokáží předpovědět, zda student bude ve studiu úspěšný i zda studium zdárně dokončí, přičemž nejlepších výsledků bývá dosaženo při zohlednění obou těchto parametrů současně.

This review study gives an overview of selected studies of the predictive validity of final secondary-school examinations and university entrance tests. Predictive validity is an important property of tests, expressing their capacity to predict future success. University entrance test scores and secondary-school grade point average (GPA) are among the most frequently used predictors, and comparison of their influence is an often discussed topic. Although there exist several criteria for academic success, the most often applied outcome measures are first-year university GPA, successful progress to the second year, or successful completion of university degree. The studies analyzed in the article are divided into categories according to their main goal, from studies focused on secondary-school examinations to studies of the predictive validity of university entrance tests. Another criterion for classification is the country of origin of the data. A separate section is devoted to studies conducted in the Czech Republic. It clearly emerges from the studies that the use of both entrance test scores and secondary-school GPA as admission criteria are justified. Both these parameters predict whether the student will be successful in studies and will obtain university degree, while the best results in terms of predictive power are usually achieved by the use of both parameters together.

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