(CZ) K metodologii prognóz v oblasti didaktiky
(EN) On the Methodology of Prognoses in the Field of Didactics

The article deals with the fundamental problems concerning the methodology of making prognoses as to the content of education. The problems involved are those of the so-called didactic prognostication, which is defined as a component of pedagogical prognostication dealing with the making of models of prospective education projects (educational aims, subject- matter, etc.) for each stage of education and for each subject. In the first part of the article the results achieved so far in this field are evaluated, mainly on the basis of works published in the Soviet Union. An analysis is given of the following problems of a methodological kind: (1) What is the starting point for didactic prognoses? (2) What is the objective and the purpose of didactic prognoses? (3) What methods are suitable for making didactic prognoses? It is pointed out that didactic prognostication is part of the basic research. The principal tasks assigned to didactic prognostication orientate this sphere of pedagogical research to making recommendations applicable in practice as well as to theoretical and methodological enrichment of general didactics and general pedagogy. In the second part one particular kind of methodological approach to didactic prognoses is explained, which is done on the basis of certain researches carried out by the Pedagogical Institute of the Czechoslovak Academy of Sciences in the 1971—1975 period. It gives (1) analytical foundations of the given didactic prognoses, (2) the content structure of the prognoses. These results will be followed up by planned prognostic researches at the above-mentioned Institute; these researches will be directed at the creation of models of prospective education systems and their experimental verification.